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MOSCOW — For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2011 (updated prediction). For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument — that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. — very seriously. Now he’s found an eager audience: Russian state media.
[Prof. Panarin]

Igor Panarin

In recent weeks, he’s been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. “It’s a record,” says Prof. Panarin. “But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger.”

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it’s his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin’s views also fit neatly with the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

“There’s a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur,” he says. “One could rejoice in that process,” he adds, poker-faced. “But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario — for Russia.” Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next year and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2011, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces — with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin’s ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country’s top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin’s English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin’s apocalyptic vision “reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today,” says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. “It’s much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union.”

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin’s predictions. “Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people,” says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin’s theories don’t hold water.

Mr. Panarin’s résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB’s successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are “classified.”

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2011.

“When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise,” he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. “They didn’t believe me.”

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

“It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time.” A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. “It’s not there for no reason,” he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia’s biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt “a pyramid scheme,” and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington’s role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama “can work miracles,” he wrote. “But when winter comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles.”

The article prompted a question about the White House’s reaction to Prof. Panarin’s forecast at a December news conference. “I’ll have to decline to comment,” spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino’s response was significant. “The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully,” he says.

The professor says he’s convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union — 15 years beforehand. “When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him,” says Prof. Panarin.

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Interesting article on Redstate.org discussing how the public’s perception of the politicians villified by the MSM have changed and now more than ever they recognize if entities like MSNBC hate someone that person must be for the average person…CEJ

The Public’s view of the Ruling Class and their Media Slaves

Posted by Dan Perrin (Profile)
Saturday, September 18th at 1:10PM EDT
No CommentsRecommenders: eastbaylarry

Here is a thought: perhaps the ruling class and their running dog microphones and television broadcasts — otherwise known as the mainstream media — have had their way for so long to determine what is fact or not, what is reasonable or not, and their collective effort to attack and discredit any who are not from their mindset — has finally back-fired.

To be attacked by the MSM now means you win primaries and become a national celeb and vote mover, a la Sarah Palin and the tea-partiers who won victories this primary season. Cont’d at the source here….

I Was For it Before I was Against It- The Dream Act

The DREAM Act in the 111th Congress

The Nightmare Is in the Details

From The Numbers USA Website

The DREAM Act has been reintroduced in both the House (H.R. 1751, by Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA)) and the Senate (S. 729, by Sen. Dick Durban (D-IL). Several cosponsors of the legislation have referred to the DREAM Act as a “narrow” proposal to deal only with the children brought here illegally by their illegal-alien parents. Unfortunately, the facts belie that claim. Here are the essentials of what the bills would do:

• They retroactively repeal the federal ban on in-state tuition for illegal aliens, so individual states would decide whether to grant this subsidy to illegal aliens at the expense of U.S. citizens and legal residents.

• They require DHS to award amnesty to every illegal alien claiming to meet minimal
criteria:

1) present in the U.S. for the last five years;

2) a U.S. high school diploma or GED, or admitted to a U.S. institution of higher learning; and of “good moral character” with no more than 2 misdemeanor convictions.

o The Senate version also requires that amnesty applicants be under 35 years of age and not be subject to a final order of removal or exclusion.

o Neither version requires specific documentation or other proof that amnesty applicants actually meet these minimal criteria.

• Once an alien files an amnesty application, he or she cannot be removed from the United States for any reason until the application is fully processed and a final decision to grant or deny amnesty has been made.

• All amnesty applications go to the front of the line for processing, thus bypassing millions of people around the world who have applied to come to the United States the right way.

• In order to deny any amnesty application, the federal government has the burden of
proving an illegal alien’s ineligibility for amnesty.

• There are no numerical limits to the amnesty and there’s no end date for the application process.

• Amnestied aliens are required to complete two years of college or military service during their first six years of legal residence, but DHS can waive the requirement or grant additional time to comply for those who do not.

• At the end of the six years, amnestied aliens can apply for citizenship and petition to bring their extended relatives—including the parents who brought them here illegally—to the United States.

• Amnesty beneficiaries are eligible for certain federal student loans and work-study
programs.

Now you see why I can’t support it and neither should you.

The results from Tuesday’s primaries should make one thing stand clear: The Tea Party and the Republican party are not one in the same … not by a long shot. The Tea Party has shown time and time again, that if you’re a RINO your last name may as well be Pelosi because if you don’t stand for smaller less intrusive government then you will not get their votes. Period!

They don’t care who controls Congress, what they care about is electing as many like-minded individuals as possible to as many seats as they can and if you’re not with them… then you’re against them!

Make all the jokes you want about Sarah Palin. It appears to me, at least up until this point, if she doesn’t like you …you don’t win. 6 years from now the left may find themselves wishing she were President when they are faced with a House and Senate she has hand picked and ushered into office.

The results from Tuesday’s primaries should make one thing stand clear: The Tea Party and the Republican party are not one in the same … not by a long shot. The Tea Party has shown time and time again, that if you’re a RINO your last name may as well be Pelosi because if you don’t stand for smaller less intrusive government then you will not get their votes. Period!

They don’t care who controls Congress, what they care about is electing as many like-minded individuals as possible to as many seats as they can and if you’re not with them… then you’re against them!

Make all the jokes you want about Sarah Palin. It appears to me, at least up until this point, if she doesn’t like you …you don’t win. 6 years from now the left may find themselves wishing she were President when they are faced with a House and Senate she has hand picked and ushered into office.

America has never been more polarized. The main catalyst for the current difficulties was the election of a president who has governed farther to the left than any other in history. A sad reality that we Catholics truly must be prepared to face and to rectify, is that the activities of the Catholic Church in America, through the Catholic Campaign for Human Development (CCHD) may be more responsible than any other single organization for helping to bring to power the most pro-abortion president in history. Read Lisa Graas’s artcle here …Cont’d

The Rant I Posted to Earl Blumenauer’s Wall in Response to His Announcement that the Rep.’s Wanted to Take a 2 Month Recess After the Midterms

Those of us with a fully functioning brain think of it as a break in the hostilities and the 2 year assault the left has been actively pursuing against our founding principles, our way of life, our collective ideals and our country. We are not a socialist nation Earl …a large majority of us have rejected your healthcare tax, your cap and tax, your bailouts, your union handouts, and the irresponsible way you have been spending our taxes. We are shocked by Obama’s decisions to not enforce our laws and our borders, we are disgusted that Obama has chosen to not prosecute the USS Cole terrorists or the bad guys at Gitmo, we are profoundly troubled that you and your ilk have become tone deaf to the wishes and desires of your constituents.

In short Earl we are pissed off ! If it requires a two month break to stop your wreckless assault on this country then lets take two months off. We can’t afford the size of government you want to create and if the voters in your district had a brain among them you would be tossed out along with the rest of the temporary democratic majorities you currently have. How is it possible for anyone to be as out of touch with this country as you and the rest of the left wing fringe is?
CEJ
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